Was the forecast right for London on Sun Oct 4?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 58° to 69°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 74° against the EGLL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 3.7°. AIGFS ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 66° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 58° | 62° | 69° | — | 68° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 60° | 63° | — | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 63° | 67° | 62° | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 61° | 66° | 68° | — | 65° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 66° | 65° | 61° | — | 69° | — | — | 61–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 67° | 68° | 59° | 70° | 65° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 69° | 66° | 66° | 69° | 67° | — | — | 66–69° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 70° | 66° | 65° | 70° | 61° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 66° | 64° | 68° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 64–70° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 65° | 67° | 73° | 71° | 66° | 70° | 65–73° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 69° | 66° | 70° | 72° | 73° | 65° | 69° | 65–73° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 68° | 66° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 69° | 66–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 69° | 67° | 69° | 71° | 72° | 67° | 70° | 67–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 65° | 67° | 70° | 71° | 69° | 71° | 65–71° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.