Was the forecast right for London on Tue Sep 8?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 63° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 64° against the EGLL observations, with 0.58 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 75° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 75–76° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 63° | 66° | — | 81° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 61° | 72° | 73° | — | 65° | — | — | 61–73° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 62° | 71° | 61° | — | 67° | — | — | 61–71° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 65° | 60° | 64° | — | 67° | — | — | 60–67° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 64° | 66° | 68° | — | 70° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 63° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 74° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 63° | 66° | 72° | 69° | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 66° | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 67° | 61° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 71° | 65° | 61–71° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 67° | 60° | 65° | 68° | 68° | 66° | 66° | 60–68° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 63° | 63° | 65° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 66° | 63–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 61° | 64° | 68° | 67° | 69° | 70° | 66° | 61–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 62° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 69° | 69° | 68° | 62–69° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 63° | 61° | 66° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 70° | 61–70° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.