Was the forecast right for London on Mon Sep 7?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 70° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 75° against the EGLL observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 64° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 70° | 76° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 74° | 64° | 66° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 67° | 63° | 71° | — | 70° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 64° | 71° | 64° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 66° | 62° | 67° | — | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 65° | 74° | 69° | 80° | 67° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 68° | 78° | 71° | 66° | 81° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 72° | 76° | 75° | 77° | 79° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 73° | 73° | 67° | 71° | 83° | 72° | 68° | 67–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 74° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 72–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 71° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 70° | 70–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 71° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 71° | 71° | 71–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 72° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 75° | 70° | 70° | 70–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 72° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 72–75° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.