Was the forecast right for London on Fri Aug 14?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
3 days out, 7 models put London's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 82° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 93° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 88° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 87° | 82° | 82–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 87° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 89° | 86° | 86–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 89° | 89° | 91° | 92° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 89–94° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.