Was the forecast right for Houston on Fri Oct 23?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 65° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 86° against the HOU observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 77° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 65° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 83° | 79° | 84° | — | 85° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 87° | 81° | 87° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 86° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 84° | 87° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 85° | 82° | 87° | 86° | 85° | — | — | 82–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 84° | 82° | 88° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 82° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 84° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 83° | 80° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 80° | 80–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 82° | 81–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 84° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 81–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 83° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 81° | 81–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 84° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 82–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 85° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 83–85° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.