Was the forecast right for Houston on Thu Oct 22?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 73° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 84° against the HOU observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.9°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 85° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 78° | 74° | 80° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 69° | 84° | — | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 84° | 81° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 87° | 79° | 86° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 82° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 85° | 87° | — | — | 83–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 83° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 83° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 83° | 81° | 86° | 82° | 82° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 87° | 81° | 80–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 86° | 80° | 80–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 80–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 82° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 80–84° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 82° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 83° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 85° | 82° | 82–86° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.