Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Oct 10?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 78° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 86° against the HOU observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 74° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 78° | 89° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 82° | 83° | 72° | — | 77° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 86° | 86° | 77° | — | 80° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 82° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 86° | 80° | 89° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 87° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 77° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 82° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 73° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 84° | 80° | 86° | 72° | 77° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 87° | 85° | 80° | 84° | 87° | 84° | 80–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 88° | 87° | 84–88° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 90° | 87° | 89° | 85° | 80° | 92° | 90° | 80–92° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 88° | 88° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 88° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 86° | 91° | 87° | 86–91° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 88° | 86° | 90° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 86–90° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.