Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Oct 4?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
14 days out, 4 models put Houston's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 71° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 79° against the HOU observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 84° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 87° | 87° | — | 97° | — | — | 71–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 90° | 90° | 83° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 88° | 77° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 90° | 82° | — | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 91° | 82° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 86° | 92° | 86° | 89° | 95° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 88° | 83° | 84° | 78° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 87° | 80° | 87° | 77° | 84° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 86° | 83° | 85° | 76° | 88° | 85° | 84° | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 81° | 86° | 78° | 82° | 86° | 80° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 82° | 87° | 76° | 88° | 87° | 79° | 76–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 82° | 79° | 86° | 82° | 79° | 86° | 82° | 79–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 80° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 80–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 76° | 82° | 85° | 76–85° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.