Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Aug 30?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
8 days out, 5 models put Houston's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 92° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 97° against the HOU observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 98° | 92° | 95° | 99° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 98° | 90° | 98° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 96° | 97° | 95° | 96° | 98° | 87° | 97° | 87–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 95° | 97° | 91° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 91–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 95° | 98° | 93° | 94° | 91° | 93° | 95° | 91–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 94° | 99° | 91° | 95° | 98° | 97° | 96° | 91–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 96° | 98° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 96° | 96–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 95° | 98° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 95–98° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.