Was the forecast right for Houston on Sun Aug 2?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 5 models put Houston's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 90° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 100° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 94° | 90° | 94° | 97° | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 94° | 95° | 99° | 103° | 93° | 104° | 88–104° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 92° | 98° | 98° | 97° | 105° | 95° | 96° | 92–105° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 92° | 96° | 97° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 92–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 96° | 97° | 100° | 99° | 105° | 96° | 103° | 96–105° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 94° | 96° | 101° | 97° | 104° | 96° | 101° | 94–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 93° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 95° | 100° | 93–100° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.