Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Oct 23?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 63° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 66° against the DTW observations — fog.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 57° | — | — | 53° | — | — | 53–57° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 63° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 63–68° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 59° | 66° | 66° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 56° | 64° | 68° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–68° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 62° | 68° | — | 67° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 60° | 63° | 67° | — | 48° | — | — | 48–67° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 74° | 75° | 58° | 71° | 76° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 72° | 65° | 71° | 70° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 66° | 65° | 58° | 68° | — | — | 58–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 63° | 64° | 59° | 62° | 68° | 55° | 59° | 55–68° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 66° | 58° | 67° | 67° | 62° | 61° | 58–67° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 64° | 65° | 54° | 64° | 66° | 62° | 58° | 54–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 66° | 65° | 60° | 64° | 65° | 65° | 61° | 60–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 65° | 64° | 62° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 62° | 62–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 63° | 63° | 61° | 68° | 65° | 64° | 62° | 61–68° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.