Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sat Oct 17?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 52° to 61°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 52°. The day verified at 54° against the DTW observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 50° | — | — | 44° | — | — | 44–50° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 61° | 58° | 52° | — | 56° | — | — | 52–61° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 69° | 58° | 61° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–69° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 51° | 66° | 75° | — | 57° | — | — | 51–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 50° | 49° | 54° | — | 54° | — | — | 49–54° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 56° | 55° | 49° | — | 71° | — | — | 49–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 49° | 62° | 52° | 50° | 56° | — | — | 49–62° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 46° | 51° | 54° | 47° | 54° | — | — | 46–54° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 46° | 45° | 57° | 47° | 47° | — | — | 45–57° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 47° | 56° | 57° | 47° | 55° | 59° | 47–59° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 52° | 56° | 55° | 48° | 62° | 60° | 48–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 49° | 53° | 52° | 52° | 55° | 55° | 53° | 49–55° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 51° | 52° | 51° | 52° | 53° | 53° | 53° | 51–53° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 51° | 52° | 52° | 51° | 54° | 53° | 55° | 51–55° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 51° | 51° | 52° | 54° | 54° | 52° | 53° | 51–54° |
| actual | 54° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.