Was the forecast right for Detroit on Tue Oct 13?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 59° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 87° against the DTW observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 2.4°. UKMO ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 60° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 60–61° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 59° | 64° | 71° | — | 60° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 49° | 63° | 61° | — | 59° | — | — | 49–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 53° | 50° | 64° | — | 68° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 56° | 53° | 67° | — | 70° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 70° | 53° | — | 70° | — | — | 53–77° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 54° | 78° | 66° | 64° | — | — | 54–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 80° | 54° | 74° | 74° | 81° | — | — | 54–81° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 76° | 75° | 76° | 68° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 75° | 66° | 77° | 71° | 56° | 66° | 56–77° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 81° | 81° | 68° | 82° | 84° | 79° | 67° | 67–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 78° | 79° | 72° | 71° | 83° | 72° | 71–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 84° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 80–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 83° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 83° | 81° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 82° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 80° | 80–85° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.