Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Oct 2?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 70° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 67° against the DTW observations, with 1.39 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 73° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 76° | 71° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 60° | 63° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 75° | 67° | — | 73° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 72° | 56° | 69° | — | 72° | — | — | 56–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 69° | 62° | 79° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 69° | 70° | 67° | 72° | 71° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 85° | 70° | 73° | 80° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 66° | 77° | 67° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 70° | 68° | 67° | 65–70° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 69° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 69° | 66° | 66° | 65–69° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 68° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 66° | 66° | 66–70° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 66° | 66° | 69° | 71° | 67° | 65° | 65–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 69° | 67° | 66° | 69° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 66–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 67° | 67° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 69° | 71° | 66–71° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.