Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Sep 18?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 64° to 71°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 75° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 80° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | — | 74° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 64° | 69° | — | 71° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 69° | 66° | 77° | — | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 67° | 71° | 73° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 77° | 84° | 64° | — | 66° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 73° | 89° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 71° | 69° | 70° | 70° | 75° | — | — | 69–75° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 76° | 74° | 70° | 74° | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 71° | 82° | 70° | 74° | 71° | — | 70–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 72° | 74° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 72–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 72° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 72–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 75° | 76° | 72–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 75° | 73–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 73–78° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 75° | 73° | 78° | 77° | 73° | 75° | 73–78° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.