Was the forecast right for Detroit on Wed Sep 16?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 63° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 74° against the DTW observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 79° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 72° | 70° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 70–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 77° | 74° | 86° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 78° | 66° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 78° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 90° | 80° | 72° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 70° | 66° | 74° | — | 68° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 80° | 78° | 77° | 75° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 78° | 88° | 72° | 86° | 76° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 71° | 72° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 83° | — | 71–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 73° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 84° | 84° | 73–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 71° | 83° | 78° | 79° | 82° | 75° | 71–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 73° | 75° | 74° | 80° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 72–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 76° | 76° | 75° | 78° | 74° | 76° | 74–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 73° | 70° | 74° | 76° | 70–76° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 72° | 73° | 77° | 77° | 71° | 75° | 76° | 71–77° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.