Was the forecast right for Detroit on Tue Sep 15?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 70° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 79° against the DTW observations, with 0.61 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. UKMO ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 66° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 78° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 70° | 95° | — | 94° | — | — | 70–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 74° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 74° | 99° | — | 93° | — | — | 74–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 76° | 86° | 76° | — | 83° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 67° | 90° | 84° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 90° | 81° | 67° | 71° | — | — | 67–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 64° | 84° | 66° | 87° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 87° | 80° | 84° | — | 80–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 84° | 90° | 89° | 73° | 92° | 84° | 88° | 73–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 81° | 86° | 90° | 81–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 81° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 78° | 85° | 87° | 78–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 79° | 86° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 81° | 78–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 80° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 83° | 80–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 80–83° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.