Was the forecast right for Detroit on Mon Sep 14?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 65° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 71° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 70° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 68° | 78° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 66° | 68° | 76° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 64° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 64–100° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 85° | 78° | — | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 67° | 94° | — | 94° | — | — | 67–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 72° | 86° | 72° | — | 98° | — | — | 72–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 68° | 87° | 95° | 67° | 76° | — | — | 67–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 80° | 77° | 73° | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 69° | 67° | 75° | 68° | 78° | 66° | — | 66–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 70° | 89° | 76° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 68–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 71° | 73° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 68–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 70° | 72° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 68–72° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 68° | 69° | 71° | 69° | 71° | 69° | 68° | 68–71° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 70° | 70° | 73° | 73° | 71° | 69° | 68–73° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 68° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 74° | 70° | 68° | 68–74° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.