Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Sep 10?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 76° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.6°. ICON ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 76° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 89° | 76° | 76° | — | 80° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 79° | 98° | — | 99° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 81° | 85° | 87° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–87° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 90° | 68° | — | 85° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 90° | 79° | — | 80° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 72° | 79° | 89° | 75° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 76° | 72° | 88° | 80° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 77° | 75° | 80° | 88° | 84° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 73° | 75° | 79° | 73–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 75° | 76° | 77° | 76° | 86° | 76° | 75° | 75–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 75° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 81° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 76° | 76° | 81° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 75–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 76° | 79° | 79° | 81° | 77° | 79° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 84° | 80° | 76° | 79° | 76–84° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.