Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sun Sep 6?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
12 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 77° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 79° against the DTW observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 86° | 77° | — | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 86° | 91° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 91° | 83° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 86° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 76° | 82° | 83° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 78° | 76° | 79° | 81° | 79° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 77° | 77° | 74° | 83° | 80° | 78° | — | 74–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 86° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 76–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 78° | 77° | 77° | 77° | 79° | 78° | 77–79° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 79° | 79° | 76–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 78° | 79° | 75° | 82° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 75–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 78° | 75° | 81° | 80° | 77° | 78° | 75–81° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.