Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Oct 26?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 54° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 56°. The day verified at 54° against the DEN observations, with 0.27 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 33° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 33–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 46° | — | 63° | — | — | 46–63° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 54° | 67° | — | 62° | — | — | 54–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 59° | 55° | 45° | — | 45° | — | — | 45–59° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 60° | 57° | 29° | — | 54° | — | — | 29–60° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 59° | 59° | 65° | — | 61° | — | — | 59–65° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 62° | 65° | 72° | 58° | 60° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 57° | 67° | 73° | 72° | 54° | — | — | 54–73° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 50° | 65° | 59° | 68° | 65° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 48° | 60° | 42° | 62° | 42° | 60° | 60° | 42–62° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 53° | 56° | 53° | 61° | 49° | 44° | 48° | 44–61° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 53° | 54° | 58° | 62° | 57° | 60° | 56° | 53–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 52° | 53° | 57° | 55° | 58° | 61° | 52° | 52–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 55° | 53° | 59° | 57° | 57° | 60° | 59° | 53–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 51° | 52° | 57° | 55° | 59° | 57° | 56° | 51–59° |
| actual | 54° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.