Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Oct 25?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 40° to 56°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 58° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 70° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 70–71° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 54° | 40° | 52° | — | 56° | — | — | 40–56° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 53° | 53° | — | 59° | — | — | 53–59° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 59° | 53° | 68° | — | 64° | — | — | 53–68° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 51° | 46° | 51° | — | 47° | — | — | 46–51° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 52° | 62° | 40° | — | 40° | — | — | 40–62° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 61° | 50° | 65° | 61° | 51° | — | — | 50–65° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 64° | 58° | 68° | 66° | 54° | — | — | 54–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 52° | 61° | 72° | 66° | 70° | — | — | 52–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 46° | 63° | 57° | 64° | 64° | 69° | 62° | 46–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 46° | 56° | 48° | 62° | 48° | 58° | 55° | 46–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 48° | 51° | 61° | 59° | 52° | 46° | 62° | 46–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 49° | 46° | 66° | 64° | 58° | 53° | 58° | 46–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 49° | 52° | 66° | 60° | 66° | 54° | 60° | 49–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 50° | 54° | 65° | 62° | 61° | 58° | 66° | 50–66° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.