Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Oct 23?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 44° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 77° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 32° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 32–68° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 71° | 51° | 44° | — | 54° | — | — | 44–71° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 52° | 61° | 58° | — | 71° | — | — | 52–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 56° | 40° | 59° | — | 64° | — | — | 40–64° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 50° | 63° | — | 56° | — | — | 50–63° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 50° | 53° | 65° | — | 73° | — | — | 50–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 57° | 57° | 79° | 70° | 59° | — | — | 57–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 69° | 62° | 79° | 66° | 60° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 70° | 64° | 69° | 72° | 69° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 74° | 73° | 80° | 77° | 78° | 73° | 72° | 72–80° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 76° | 75° | 73° | 72° | 75° | 74° | 78° | 72–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 76° | 73° | 77° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 75° | 73–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 76° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 74–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 76° | 75° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 75–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 76° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 78° | 74–78° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.