Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Oct 17?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 54° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 78° against the DEN observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 54° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 54–67° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 54° | 66° | 63° | — | 77° | — | — | 54–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 55° | 55° | 66° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 72° | 46° | — | 62° | — | — | 46–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 64° | 73° | 46° | — | 57° | — | — | 46–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 54° | 52° | 66° | — | 51° | — | — | 51–66° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 55° | 39° | 68° | 51° | 50° | — | — | 39–68° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 52° | 68° | 75° | 71° | — | — | 52–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 69° | 66° | 62° | 72° | 63° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 69° | 67° | 70° | 71° | 63° | 63° | 63–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 69° | 71° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 65° | 65–71° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 73° | 69° | 74° | 73° | 71° | 74° | 72° | 69–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 71° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 75° | 75° | 71–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 73° | 72° | 76° | 75° | 77° | 75° | 74° | 72–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 74° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 73–78° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.