Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Oct 7?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 58° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 81° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 66° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 58° | 61° | 78° | — | 77° | — | — | 58–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 73° | 71° | 69° | — | 72° | — | — | 69–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 81° | 64° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 78° | 73° | 70° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 76° | 72° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 65° | 76° | 75° | 69° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 79° | 73° | 82° | 77° | 69° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 83° | 81° | 82° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 83° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 79° | 79–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 79° | 81° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 79° | 79–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 77° | 77–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 77° | 86° | 83° | 78° | 75° | 79° | 75–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 81° | 78° | 85° | 82° | 80° | 77° | 84° | 77–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 82° | 78° | 84° | 85° | 80° | 81° | 84° | 78–85° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.