Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Oct 5?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 65° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 87° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 79° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 72° | 85° | — | 66° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 59° | 79° | 67° | — | 79° | — | — | 59–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 83° | 84° | 76° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 45° | 82° | — | 60° | — | — | 45–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 79° | 55° | 75° | — | 45° | — | — | 45–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 68° | 64° | 69° | 85° | — | — | 64–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 79° | 70° | 81° | 85° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 79° | 75° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 81° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 80–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 82–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 87° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 84–87° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 88° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 84–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 88° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 85–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 84–88° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.