Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Oct 3?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 67° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 74° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 68° | 67° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 74° | 85° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 74° | 65° | 65° | — | 49° | — | — | 49–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 68° | 54° | 69° | — | 67° | — | — | 54–69° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 71° | 71° | 58° | — | 48° | — | — | 48–71° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 67° | 68° | 64° | 66° | 72° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 77° | 64° | 69° | 71° | 61° | — | — | 61–77° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 79° | 73° | 76° | 85° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 76° | 80° | 69° | 79° | 83° | 75° | 81° | 69–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 80° | 76° | 73° | 75° | 80° | 69° | 69–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 79° | 82° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 84° | 75–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 82° | 85° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 82–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 83° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 85° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 83° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 80–84° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.