Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Oct 1?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 48° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 76° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 78° | 48° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 48–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 69° | 80° | 84° | — | 86° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 58° | 82° | — | 67° | — | — | 58–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 75° | 81° | — | 84° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 76° | 69° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 74° | 76° | 78° | 79° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 68° | 55° | 77° | 75° | 79° | — | — | 55–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 65° | 57° | 68° | 74° | 63° | — | — | 57–74° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 70° | 57° | 77° | 70° | 72° | 59° | 57–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 69° | 59° | 66° | 63° | 60° | 76° | 59–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 63° | 63° | 55° | 67° | 65° | 59° | 66° | 55–67° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 63° | 62° | 63° | 56° | 70° | 56° | 64° | 56–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 66° | 66° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 67° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 67° | 70° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 69° | 66–70° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.