Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Sep 30?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 58° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 64° against the DEN observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 58° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 58–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 74° | 58° | — | 76° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 76° | 75° | 81° | — | 80° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 72° | 77° | 81° | — | 83° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 76° | 58° | 79° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 69° | 72° | — | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 64° | 82° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 69° | 67° | 73° | 64° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 64° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 74° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 58° | 58° | 72° | 59° | 56° | 75° | 72° | 56–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 67° | 60° | 59° | 69° | 67° | 71° | 56° | 56–71° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 57° | 66° | 68° | 57° | 74° | 66° | 72° | 57–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 58° | 61° | 57° | 66° | 68° | 62° | 70° | 57–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 60° | 60° | 61° | 58° | 66° | 58° | 58° | 58–66° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 59° | 61° | 62° | 63° | 61° | 63° | 70° | 59–70° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.