Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Sep 28?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 72° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 71° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 76° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 75–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 72° | 82° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 80° | 87° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 67° | 70° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 67–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 77° | 69° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 78° | 72° | — | 77° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 76° | 72° | 64° | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 76° | 77° | 76° | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 79° | 76° | 73° | 75° | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 66° | 76° | 81° | 77° | 78° | 81° | — | 66–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 70° | 76° | 77° | 77° | 74° | 76° | 70–77° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 69° | 71° | 77° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 76° | 69–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 70° | 71° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 67° | 75° | 67–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 68° | 72° | 72° | 75° | 74° | 73° | 67° | 67–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 70° | 75° | 73° | 77° | 78° | 70° | 71° | 70–78° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.