Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Sep 27?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 61° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 80° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 61° | 71° | 77° | — | 79° | — | — | 61–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 64° | 77° | 76° | — | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 82° | 77° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 54° | 61° | 78° | — | 86° | — | — | 54–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 76° | 76° | 73° | — | 82° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 75° | 80° | 80° | 76° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 73° | 82° | 68° | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 81° | 75° | 82° | 76° | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 81° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 78–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 80–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 80–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 81° | 79° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 79–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 81° | 79° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 79–82° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.