Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Sep 25?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 68° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the DEN observations, with 1.1 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 85° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 68° | 82° | — | 74° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 80° | 77° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 81° | 75° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 60° | 75° | 64° | — | 82° | — | — | 60–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 77° | 82° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 75° | 68° | 74° | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 69° | 79° | 71° | 80° | — | — | 69–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 84° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 79° | 76° | 75° | 72° | 78° | 79° | 67° | 67–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 75° | 72° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 72–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 70° | 76° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 77° | 66–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 70° | 68° | 77° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 78° | 68–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 71° | 69° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 69–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 68° | 69° | 77° | 72° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 68–77° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.