Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Sep 14?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 75° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 76° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 65° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 79° | 77° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 74° | 69° | 87° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 72° | 91° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 84° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 59° | 90° | — | 77° | — | — | 59–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 69° | 68° | 89° | 72° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 90° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 62° | — | — | 62–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 87° | 80° | 84° | 70° | 74° | — | 70–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 85° | 87° | 80° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 80–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 86° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 81–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 85° | 85° | 89° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 87° | 85–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 86° | 85° | 89° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 84–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 86° | 86° | 87° | 84° | 83° | 87° | 89° | 83–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 86° | 85° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 85–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.