Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Sep 9?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 76° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 82° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 88° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 88–88° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 76° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 94° | 89° | 68° | — | 91° | — | — | 68–94° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 92° | 77° | 89° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 74° | 94° | 79° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 90° | 84° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 80° | 82° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 73° | 76° | 85° | 85° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 76° | 87° | 83° | 84° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 83–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 87° | 86° | 82° | 82–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 79° | 80° | 79–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 80° | 77° | 80° | 77° | 83° | 84° | 85° | 77–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 78° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 78–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 78–81° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.