The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Sep 9?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 61° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 82° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 61–90; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 70° 68° 68–70°
14d · 2026-08-26 79° 87° 80° 79–87°
13d · 2026-08-27 90° 78° 61° 76° 61–90°
12d · 2026-08-28 89° 84° 87° 84° 84–89°
11d · 2026-08-29 92° 85° 93° 80° 80–93°
10d · 2026-08-30 74° 89° 72° 84° 72–89°
9d · 2026-08-31 89° 82° 74° 88° 74–89°
8d · 2026-09-01 79° 80° 83° 87° 89° 79–89°
7d · 2026-09-02 88° 68° 86° 76° 82° 68–88°
6d · 2026-09-03 90° 87° 90° 90° 88° 87° 87–90°
5d · 2026-09-04 83° 86° 86° 88° 85° 86° 84° 83–88°
4d · 2026-09-05 83° 84° 86° 84° 85° 82° 80° 80–86°
3d · 2026-09-06 80° 78° 83° 79° 81° 86° 85° 78–86°
2d · 2026-09-07 80° 77° 80° 79° 83° 79° 82° 77–83°
1d · 2026-09-08 81° 78° 82° 80° 80° 80° 81° 78–82°
0d · 2026-09-09 82° 78° 82° 81° 80° 80° 81° 78–82°
actual 82°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.