Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Sep 7?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 69° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 69° | 69° | — | 88° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 76° | 80° | 86° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 70° | 80° | — | 81° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 81° | 99° | — | 91° | — | — | 81–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 89° | 86° | — | 84° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 89–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 88° | 99° | 89° | 94° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 87° | 81° | 89° | 85° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 86° | 86° | 91° | 89° | 84° | 90° | 83–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 85° | 91° | 88° | 84° | 92° | 92° | 84–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 88° | 91° | 89° | 87° | 88° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 87° | 91° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 91° | 87–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 87° | 95° | 88° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 87–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 85–89° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.