Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Sep 7?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 67° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 67° | 79° | 92° | — | 74° | — | — | 67–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 68° | 88° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 71° | 74° | 81° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 67° | 83° | — | 87° | — | — | 67–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 82° | 94° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 84° | 93° | 90° | 86° | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 85° | 83° | 90° | 90° | 77° | — | 77–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 88° | 96° | 90° | 95° | 85° | 88° | 82–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 85° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 85° | 83° | 90° | 83–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 87° | 90° | 87–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 87° | 94° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 87° | 91° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 86° | 93° | 86–93° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.