Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Aug 10?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 89° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 93° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 87° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 90° | 90° | — | 92° | — | — | 89–92° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 92° | 92° | 96° | — | 105° | — | — | 92–105° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 89° | 95° | 99° | — | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 69° | 90° | — | 81° | — | — | 69–90° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 80° | 100° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–100° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 82° | 102° | 91° | 103° | — | — | 82–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 98° | 92° | 99° | 97° | 96° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 86° | 90° | 100° | 96° | 94° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 92° | 84° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 84–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 93° | 89° | 95° | 95° | 99° | 92° | 96° | 89–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 92° | 88° | 98° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 96° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 93° | 94° | 93° | 98° | 97° | 95° | 92–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 92° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 98° | 98° | 94° | 92–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 93–97° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.