Was the forecast right for Chicago on Mon Oct 26?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Mon Oct 26 high anywhere from 58° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the MDW observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-11 | — | 59° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 57–59° |
| 14d · 2026-10-12 | — | 57° | 52° | — | 58° | — | — | 52–58° |
| 13d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 58° | 67° | — | 61° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 59° | 72° | — | 57° | — | — | 56–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-15 | 67° | 66° | 71° | — | 68° | — | — | 66–71° |
| 10d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 54° | 61° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–66° |
| 9d · 2026-10-17 | 72° | 69° | 64° | 68° | 57° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 8d · 2026-10-18 | 58° | 64° | 69° | 66° | 64° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-19 | 59° | 75° | 64° | 69° | 61° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-20 | 69° | 69° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 65° | 65–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-21 | 69° | 70° | 69° | 68° | 62° | 70° | 68° | 62–70° |
| 4d · 2026-10-22 | 66° | 68° | 64° | 67° | 66° | 69° | 64° | 64–69° |
| 3d · 2026-10-23 | 63° | 67° | 63° | 66° | 64° | 67° | 63° | 63–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-24 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 63° | 63° | 66° | 63° | 62–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-25 | 63° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 62–65° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.