Was the forecast right for Chicago on Mon Oct 19?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Mon Oct 19 high anywhere from 50° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 68° against the MDW observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-04 | — | 57° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 57–59° |
| 14d · 2026-10-05 | 62° | 70° | 50° | — | 65° | — | — | 50–70° |
| 13d · 2026-10-06 | 66° | 69° | 61° | — | 40° | — | — | 40–69° |
| 12d · 2026-10-07 | 67° | 60° | 57° | — | 61° | — | — | 57–67° |
| 11d · 2026-10-08 | 53° | 68° | 57° | — | 58° | — | — | 53–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 61° | 66° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 9d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 59° | 68° | 56° | 58° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 8d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 66° | 68° | 62° | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-12 | — | 66° | 64° | 60° | 61° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-13 | 65° | 64° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 64° | 62° | 62–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 66° | 63° | 62° | 66° | 64° | 63° | 62–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 66° | 64° | 61° | 67° | 63° | 62° | 61–67° |
| 3d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 65° | 64° | 62° | 67° | 63° | 64° | 62–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 66° | 63° | 64° | 68° | 63° | 63° | 63–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 66° | 63° | 68° | 67° | 65° | 62° | 62–68° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.