Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sun Oct 18?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 52° to 62°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 64° against the MDW observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ICON ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 65° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 56° | 52° | 62° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–62° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 51° | 66° | 57° | — | 55° | — | — | 51–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 49° | 54° | 51° | — | 41° | — | — | 41–54° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 50° | 50° | — | 54° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 44° | 65° | 51° | — | 56° | — | — | 44–65° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 54° | 54° | 57° | 52° | 52° | — | — | 52–57° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 59° | 49° | 60° | 51° | 49° | — | — | 49–60° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 63° | 60° | 61° | 60° | 61° | — | — | 60–63° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 63° | 64° | 60° | 62° | 62° | 64° | 60–64° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 61° | 62° | 62° | 59° | 65° | 65° | 62° | 59–65° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 62° | 61° | 60° | 57° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 57–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 61° | 61° | 61° | 57° | 62° | 61° | 63° | 57–63° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 61° | 61° | 57° | 63° | 60° | 62° | 57–63° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 61° | 60° | 62° | 63° | 60° | 62° | 60–63° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.