Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sat Oct 17?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 50° to 60°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 56°. The day verified at 56° against the MDW observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 52° | — | — | 47° | — | — | 47–52° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 58° | 60° | 50° | — | 60° | — | — | 50–60° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 61° | 57° | 61° | — | 58° | — | — | 57–61° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 47° | 66° | 61° | — | 54° | — | — | 47–66° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 44° | 52° | 56° | — | 45° | — | — | 44–56° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 59° | 51° | 48° | — | 62° | — | — | 48–62° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 46° | 59° | 46° | 51° | 53° | — | — | 46–59° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 46° | 52° | 56° | 44° | 47° | — | — | 44–56° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 53° | 44° | 58° | 46° | 46° | — | — | 44–58° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 57° | 51° | 60° | 57° | 56° | 58° | 61° | 51–61° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 54° | 57° | 55° | 56° | 61° | 61° | 54–61° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 54° | 55° | 55° | 55° | 58° | 56° | 57° | 54–58° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 55° | 54° | 55° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 57° | 54–57° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 55° | 54° | 55° | 55° | 58° | 55° | 57° | 54–58° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 55° | 54° | 56° | 56° | 58° | 54° | 57° | 54–58° |
| actual | 56° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.