Was the forecast right for Chicago on Thu Oct 15?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 60° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 66° against the MDW observations, with 0.42 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 54° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 54–60° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 65° | 60° | — | 78° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 51° | 59° | 76° | — | 70° | — | — | 51–76° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 71° | 64° | 63° | — | 71° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 52° | 69° | — | 50° | — | — | 50–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 66° | 77° | — | 69° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 59° | 60° | 75° | — | 64° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 55° | 66° | 54° | 60° | 88° | — | — | 54–88° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 63° | 83° | 73° | 60° | 81° | — | — | 60–83° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 74° | 61° | 71° | 64° | 61° | 60° | 58–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 60° | 62° | 58° | 69° | 67° | 72° | 60° | 58–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 59° | 60° | 62° | 64° | 63° | 64° | 60° | 59–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 61° | 64° | 61° | 65° | 60° | 60–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 62° | 60° | 64° | 70° | 61° | 64° | 61° | 60–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 64° | 68° | 70° | 62° | 66° | 62° | 62–70° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.