Was the forecast right for Chicago on Tue Oct 13?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 59° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 79° against the MDW observations, with 0.27 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 66° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 59° | 66° | 61° | — | 63° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 54° | 59° | 63° | — | 63° | — | — | 54–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 53° | 54° | 64° | — | 70° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 51° | 54° | 70° | — | 75° | — | — | 51–75° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 59° | 56° | — | 74° | — | — | 56–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 49° | 77° | 74° | 61° | — | — | 49–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 79° | 58° | 77° | 74° | 85° | — | — | 58–85° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 80° | 76° | 80° | 61° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 74° | 70° | 78° | 69° | 61° | 64° | 61–78° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 77° | 84° | 68° | 87° | 82° | 79° | 74° | 68–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 76° | 77° | 79° | 76° | 72° | 79° | 75° | 72–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 83° | 82° | 88° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 78–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 77° | 81° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 80° | 81° | 77–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 81° | 79° | 86° | 82° | 78° | 78° | 78–86° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.