Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sat Oct 10?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 57° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the MDW observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 68° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 68–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 57° | 77° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 57–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 57° | 50° | — | 54° | — | — | 50–68° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 80° | 57° | — | 58° | — | — | 57–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 79° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 81° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 79° | 86° | 79° | 79° | 72° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 86° | 79° | 78° | 78° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 77° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 71° | 76° | 74° | 70° | 65° | 67° | 65–77° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 80° | 81° | 73° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 82° | 81° | 77° | 84° | 77° | 78° | 73–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 75° | 81° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 75–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 77° | 79° | 76° | 75° | 79° | 80° | 77° | 75–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 77° | 79° | 75° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 79° | 75–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.