Was the forecast right for Chicago on Mon Oct 5?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 55° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 68° against the MDW observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 74° | — | — | 58° | — | — | 58–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 73° | 55° | 66° | — | 72° | — | — | 55–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 68° | 57° | 62° | — | 64° | — | — | 57–68° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 59° | 67° | 62° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 67° | 76° | 64° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–76° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 66° | 58° | — | 73° | — | — | 58–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 53° | 64° | 60° | 55° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 56° | 58° | 61° | 69° | 75° | — | — | 56–75° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 59° | 58° | 60° | 60° | 66° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 62° | 59° | 60° | 66° | 59° | 60° | 60° | 59–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 64° | 66° | 61° | 64° | 66° | 65° | 63° | 61–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 67° | 65° | 64° | 65° | 67° | 65° | 63° | 63–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 67° | 64° | 64° | 69° | 65° | 63° | 63–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 67° | 66° | 64° | 72° | 69° | 68° | 66° | 64–72° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.