Was the forecast right for Chicago on Tue Sep 22?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 68° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 64° against the MDW observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 79° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 79–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 68° | 68° | — | 72° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 75° | 67° | 61° | — | 83° | — | — | 61–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 65° | 64° | 60° | — | 72° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 73° | 68° | — | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 67° | 59° | 66° | — | 78° | — | — | 59–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 75° | 72° | 78° | — | 57° | — | — | 57–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 61° | 73° | 65° | 68° | 60° | — | — | 60–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 65° | 69° | 75° | 63° | 75° | — | — | 63–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 60° | 58° | 63° | 68° | 68° | 65° | 68° | 58–68° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 61° | 61° | 60° | 64° | 59° | 63° | 64° | 59–64° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 59° | 60° | 61° | 62° | 66° | 64° | 64° | 59–66° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 60° | 58° | 61° | 64° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 58–65° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 60° | 62° | 60° | 63° | 63° | 61° | 62° | 60–63° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 60° | 62° | 61° | 66° | 66° | 62° | 61° | 60–66° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.