Was the forecast right for Chicago on Wed Sep 2?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
12 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 71° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 96° against the MDW observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 71° | 76° | 85° | — | 97° | — | — | 71–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 77° | 68° | 74° | — | 74° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 84° | 70° | 68° | — | 83° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 79° | 83° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 94° | 83° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 87° | 92° | 81° | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 84° | 89° | 80° | 97° | 87° | — | 79–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 91° | 97° | 89° | 96° | 95° | 93° | 83–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 91° | 100° | 97° | 97° | 99° | 96° | 88–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 95° | 98° | 97° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 97° | 90–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 93° | 93° | 99° | 95° | 93° | 97° | 91–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 92° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 95° | 98° | 90–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.