Was the forecast right for Chicago on Tue Aug 25?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
5 days out, 7 models put Chicago's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 77° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the MDW observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 77° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 77–85° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 77° | 77° | 77° | 80° | 82° | 78° | 81° | 77–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 78° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 76–81° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 76° | 78° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 84° | 76–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 77° | 79° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 77–85° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.