Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Oct 18?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 67° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 64° against the CLT observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 69° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–69° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 67° | 82° | — | 70° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 54° | 63° | 79° | — | 62° | — | — | 54–79° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 60° | 60° | 60° | — | 66° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 84° | 59° | — | 70° | — | — | 59–84° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 70° | 58° | — | 67° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 57° | 58° | 61° | 56° | 60° | — | — | 56–61° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 59° | 54° | 64° | 55° | 55° | — | — | 54–64° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 65° | 58° | 64° | 65° | 60° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 65° | 63° | 64° | 62° | 72° | 62° | 62–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 60° | 65° | 61° | 63° | 65° | 65° | 61° | 60–65° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 62° | 62° | 57° | 62° | 63° | 60° | 57° | 57–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 60° | 60° | 58° | 61° | 60° | 61° | 58–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 59° | 60° | 59° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 59–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 62° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 60–62° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.