Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Oct 17?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 64° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 70° against the CLT observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 69° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 82° | 64° | 69° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 64° | 87° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 71° | 71° | 79° | — | 84° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 56° | 58° | 58° | — | 64° | — | — | 56–64° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 87° | 66° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–87° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 69° | 86° | 70° | 73° | 85° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 68° | 71° | 68° | 72° | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 71° | 66° | 72° | 67° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 64° | 65° | 63° | 65° | 64° | 61° | 64° | 61–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 66° | 72° | 63° | 66° | 67° | 63° | 63–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 65° | 66° | 62° | 72° | 64° | 63° | 69° | 62–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 66° | 72° | 68° | 63° | 70° | 70° | 63–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 67° | 66° | 71° | 73° | 67° | 70° | 68° | 66–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 67° | 66° | 69° | 71° | 64° | 70° | 67° | 64–71° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.