Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Thu Oct 15?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 54° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the CLT observations — fog.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 78° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 54° | 80° | — | 72° | — | — | 54–80° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 68° | 59° | 75° | — | 83° | — | — | 59–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 68° | 73° | — | 79° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 57° | 87° | — | 77° | — | — | 57–87° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 75° | 81° | 80° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 78° | 70° | 70° | 72° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 74° | 80° | 64° | 73° | 76° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 88° | 84° | 69° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 85° | 86° | 81° | 84° | 76° | 87° | 76° | 76–87° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 87° | 85° | 85° | 83° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 83–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 87° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 84–87° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 88° | 84° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 83° | 83–88° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 88° | 88° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 83° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 88° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 84° | 84–89° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.